With the national media abuzz in real estate recovery headlines, where does the Orlando real estate market stack up? While the number of units sold is down 14% from Feb. 2012 compared to Feb. 2011, the most significant numbers are the 29% increase in “normal” or traditional sales over this time last year and the 17% increase in normal sales over last month alone. This may indicate a flushing of short-sale and foreclosure inventory from the market. The median price jumped 15% from Feb. 2011, inventory continued its downward trend, with Feb. 2012 inventory down by 32% compared to this time last year.

What am I seeing in the trenches? Very stiff competition for competitively priced traditional sales. I’m seeing seven or eight offers for each normal sale in the lower price ranges, and higher price range buyers should brace themselves for competitive bidders as well. I’ve had a couple of clients give up on traditional sales because of this in the last month and make offers on short-sales.

A median price jump of 12% in December is the highlight of this market report. Sales tallys for 2011 were very similar to 2010, but 2010 had tax incentives to stimulate sales. This, along with the fact that distressed sales are making up a smaller percentage of the market, points to a further stabilization of the market.

I get asked all the time “Have we reached the bottom?” Well, supply and demand have come into balance and renting is now a good bit more expensive than buying. These are indicators we have reached the bottom. We may drag along the bottom for a little while, but we may have seen the worst.

This video from the Orlando Regional Realtors Association has a good summary of the latest monthly data.   http://youtu.be/qX1EkZPLEJw

As always, please feel free to email or call me with any questions you have about Orlando area real estate. BluRiver Realty Group is a Buyer Dedicated Broker. As buyer’s agents, our loyalty is 100% to home buyers. We’ll help you find the best homes in the market and then aggressively negotiate on your behalf for the best price, terms, and conditions.

The Seminole County School Board has zeroed in on eight elementary schools as they consider shutting down two elementary schools to save money as the district faces a $20 million budget deficit for next school year.

Three of these schools are historically high scoring and therefore highly sought-after from a real estate standpoint. Keeth Elementary, just outside the Tuscawilla community in Winter Springs, Carillon Elementary in Oviedo, and Wekiva Elementary in Longwood all made the list. These are all either within the neighborhood itself or within walking distance of very large neighborhoods. I don’t think the board will vote to close any of these three, but I’m nonetheless surprised they made the list for consideration.

According to Clear Capital’s home data index, Orlando is one of only five markets nationwide where prices will rise for the remainder of 2001. The other cities were Washington, New York, Dallas, and San Francisco. Prices are expected to be up .7% in Orlando, compared with a nationwide decrease of 2.4% for the remainder of the year. Not a huge increase, but certainly an encouraging sign of stability in a market that has suffered huge losses.

The Orlando real estate market is among those getting the most web traffic on realtor.com, according to April rankings released by the site. Orlando came in at number 10 in the country. Number 1 was Chicago, followed by Detroit and Las Vegas. The Tampa-St. Pete-Clearwater market also made the top ten, coming in at number 6.

More mixed signals in the media for the Orlando real estate market.  With the inventory of homes for sale in the Orlando MLS at 11,480 last month, this represents the first time this number has been under 12,000 since December 2005.  At April’s sales price, this represents a 4.8 month supply of homes.  Markets with a six month supply of homes for sale are considered to be in perfect balance.  Supply was at a low of 3.6 months in December 2005 and at a high of 32 months in January 2008.  The Orlando area median sales price rose 3% from March 2011 to April 2011.  Another notable shift was the percentage of distressed sales in April.  The number of foreclosures and short-sales has lingered around 75% for the last year, but last month was at 65%.  Fewer Orlando homes for sale, rising median prices, fewer distressed sales.  These sound like the signs of market recovery.  Time will tell.

I don’t know why, but I’ve been paying a lot of attention to news articles on the state of our real estate market lately.   Both on a national basis and specifically on the Orlando real estate market.  Maybe it’s because of the conflicting information we’re getting from different sources.

First, The Orlando Sentinel reports that the Orlando area was among the top markets in Florida for sales pace in March 2011, with the number of sales up over 8% from a year earlier.  Then, last week, Fiserv Inc. releases a report calling Orlando the worst housing market in the U.S.  This is based on the number of  foreclosures yet to work their way through the market.  Does this mean Orlando is also the best market for buyers?  On May 11, the lastest market report from Altos Research shows the housing market is showing signs of strength on a national basis, with increases in both median prices and inventory, despite new lows being reported in the lagging data.  Huh?  The same week, Zillow reports they are revising their forecast of the market bottom from 2011 to 2012.  Local Orlando homes sales data released today shows almost 10% decreases in April sales compared both to April 2010 sales and to March 2011 sales.

So, what are we to believe?   The fact is, you will likely see these mixed signals for a while as the backlog of foreclosures works its way through the system.  From what I see in the trenches, there are areas with good locations and good school systems, where the market is already trending upward.  Typically, you don’t see the large number of foreclosures and short-sales in these areas.  Bottom line, if you’re in the market for a home and you’re trying to time the market, don’t.  Even the experts that try to time the market are rarely successful.  In fact, one oft-quoted Florida economist predicted the Orlando real estate market had hit bottom in mid-2007.  Funny, I don’t see him quoted much anymore.  These are uncharted waters, but we are probably looking at a couple of years of stagnation or low levels of appreciation.  If you plan on staying in your home for more than 2-3 years, now is an excellent time to buy.

1.  Orlando has many established neighborhoods with lots of character and mature trees. Most visitors to the Orlando area form their impressions of the region’s housing from what they see from the highway in between theme parks.  We can see where one might get an unfavorable impression of the area’s homes from these normally “cookie-cutter” subdivisions with small lots and no trees. Truth is, from the historical districts in downtown Orlando, to the brick streets of Winter Park lined by centuries old oaks, to the lush vegetation of Seminole County’s Sweetwater Oaks and Markham Woods areas, to the quaint charm of Windermere with its pristine chain of lakes, the region is loaded with beautiful places to live.

2.  Orlando’s economy is not 100% tourist-based. In fact, the Orlando area has the most diverse economy of all the state’s major metropolitan areas.  Tourism is indeed huge, but is complimented by banking and finance, insurance, defense contractors, simulation contractors, restaurant management (Darden), video game development (EA Sports, Tiburon), telecommunications, and a growing high-tech corridor in the Lake Mary area.

3.  Orlando did exist before Disney.  It was just a much quieter existence.  The dominant industry was agriculture.  Citrus groves were most numerous, with vegetable farming to the north and cattle ranching to the east and south.  Some describe pre-Disney Orlando as a “sleepy southern agricultural town”.  Certainly not the international city  we see today.

4.  Orlando is not all flat and swampy, with no physical beauty.   Again, these impressions are formed from trips to theme parks.  Most tourists never get to see the “real Florida”.  A trip to lush Wekiva Springs, with its beautiful crystal clear spring with 72 degree year round water temperature, a ride up the St. Johns River to spot alligators and manatees, a Sunday drive to the rolling hills of Lake County, a walk around Lake Eola in downtown Orlando, or a scenic boat ride touring the mansions of Winter Park’s chain of lakes will quickly change your mind about the Orlando area’s physical beauty.

5.  Orlando has a change of seasons and it does get cold here.   Okay, maybe that’s a stretch, but new residents can be surprised at the temperatures November through March.  While our subtropical climate is mild most of the year, we will see frost and occasional freezes during the winter months.  Even with freezing temperatures in the early morning, it is not unusual to see it warm up to the 70’s later in the day.  There are rare occasions where the temperature gets extreme and we will lose landscape plants.  In fact, extreme freezes in the 1980’s were enough to drive most of the citrus industry south.  I can remember one particular Christmas day in the 1980’s where temperatures were in the teens.

6.  Orlando homes have a wide variety of architectural styles.   There is no dominant style here.  You will find a little bit of everything including Georgian, Victorian, Federal, Cape Cod, and Classic Spanish in the historical areas.  Newer areas were dominated by Mediterranean and Palm Beach styles in the late 80’s and 90’s, with more recent trends leaning toward traditional or transitional designs.  The recent development of neo-Traditional communities, such as Celebration in Osceola County and Baldwin Park close to downtown Orlando. have sparked a return to more traditional architecture with highly functional and modernized floor plans.

7.  Orlando is relatively hurricane-safe. Orlando is far enough inland where the typical storm will be significantly weakened before it reaches the area.  I used to tell people we haven’t had a hurricane  in over 40 years and even then the highest recorded winds in the area were 75 mph, barely hurricane strength.  Then 2004 happened.  We were hit by three hurricanes in a six week period.  Ironically, Charley, the most destructive of the three, traveled 200 miles over land from the southwest where it made landfall at Captiva Island.  Charley still packed winds of up to 100 mph in the Orlando area.  It traveled so quickly over the land that it didn’t have time to weaken.  As bad as it seemed at the time, the damage from Charley was still minor compared to the coastal areas.  I can’t help but think that three hurricanes in six weeks was a freak occurrence we will never see again. While Tropical Storm Fay dumped up to 15-20 inches in some Central Florida locations in 2008, we have not suffered a direct hurricane hit since that freak summer of 2004.

8.  Orlando has an arts and cultural scene. No, we’re not talking about t-shirt shops and bungee jumps on International Drive.  There is a growing theater scene, from Shakespeare to improvisational comedy. There’s the Orlando Ballet (formerly the Southern Ballet Theater) and the Orlando Opera.  The planned 330,000 square foot Orlando Perfoming Arts Center will break ground in 2009 and will be a premiere destination for world class culture and entertainment.   There are several world-class art museums, including the world’s largest collection of Tiffany glass at the Charles Hosmer Morse Museum of American Art in Winter Park and the renowned Cornell Museum at Rollins College.  The Cornell Museum was named as one of the top ten free attractions in the world by travel guru Arthur Frommer.

9. There is plenty to do in the Orlando area without going to the theme parks. Cook your own pancakes at your table at the Old Spanish Sugar Mill in DeLeon Springs State Park.  Paddle a canoe down the Wekiva River while observing alligators, otters, deer, and black bears.  Stroll the quaint streets of Mt. Dora with its eclectic shops and restaurants.  Witness a space shuttle launch from the banks of the Indian River Lagoon in Titusville.  Catch an Atlanta Braves spring training game or an Orlando Magic basketball game.  Cheer on a real cowboy at the Silver Spurs Rodeo in Kissimmee.  Count the manatees or swim in the boil at Blue Spring State Park.  Enjoy a round of golf at one the finest courses in the world.  Atlantic beaches at New Smyrna Beach, Daytona Beach, and Cocoa Beach are less than an hour’s drive away.  Not to mention plenty of opportunities for freshwater fishing in the numerous local lakes and inland salt water flats fishing at the world renowned Mosquito Lagoon.  You’ll never run out of things to do in Orlando.

10.   I-4 runs north/south through town. Okay, then why is it marked East/West?   Running from Tampa to Daytona Beach, I-4 does run from the east coast of Florida to the west coast, but the general direction through the Orlando metro area is north and south.  Just remember, north is east, and south is west.  Or is it, east is north and west is south?  Oh, never mind.

Real estate trends for Lake Mary, FL over the past 12 months:

This upscale residential community is Seminole County’s newest city, incorporated in 1973. Located 10 miles north of downtown Orlando, the city has a population of more than 8,000. Home to Heathrow and other upscale golf course communities, Lake Mary has seen phenomenal business growth in the last few years at the office parks on both sides of I-4.

Great schools, shopping and abundant recreational opportunities have prompted many high-tech companies to target Lake Mary for expansion and relocation. Lake Mary recently became the new national headquarters for the American Automobile Association, Convergys, Dixon Ticonderoga, Veritas, Intervoice, and HTE. Siemens Corp. and ATT also have large facilities in Lake Mary.